On the Impact Monitoring of Near-Earth Objects: Mathematical Tools, Algorithms, and Challenges for the Future

Abstract

The Impact Monitoring (IM) of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) is a young field of research, considering that 22 years ago precise algorithms to compute an impact probability with the Earth did not exist. On the other hand, the year 2020 just passed saw the increase of IM operational systems: in addition to the two historical systems, CLOMON2 (University of Pisa/SpaceDyS) and Sentry (JPL/NASA), the European Space Agency (ESA) started its own system AstOD. Moreover, in the last five years three systems for the detection of imminent impactors (small asteroidal objects detected a few days before the possible impact with the Earth) have been developed: SCOUT (at JPL/NASA), NEORANGER (at University of Helsinki) and NEOScan (at University of Pisa/SpaceDyS). The IM science, in addition to being useful for the planetary protection, is a very fascinating field of research because it involves astronomy, physics, mathematics and computer science. In this paper I am going to review the mathematical tools and algorithms of the IM science, highlighting the historical evolution and the challenges to be faced in the future.