A Chi-Squared Analysis of the Measurements of Two Cosmological Parameters over Time

Abstract

The aim of this analysis was to determine whether or not the given error bars truly represented the dispersion of values in a historical compilation of two cosmological parameters: the amplitude of mass fluctuations (σ8) and Hubble’s constant (H0) parameters in the standard cosmological model. For this analysis, a chi-squared test was executed on a compiled list of past measurements. It was found through analysis of the chi-squared (χ2) values of the data that for σ8 (60 data points measured between 1993 and 2019 and χ2 between 182.4 and 189.0) the associated probability Q is extremely low, with Q=1.6×10−15 for the weighted average and Q=8.8×10−15 for the best linear fit of the data. This was also the case for the χ2 values of H0 (163 data points measured between 1976 and 2019 and χ2 between 480.1 and 575.7), where Q=1.8×10−33 for the linear fit of the data and Q=1.0×10−47 for the weighted average of the data. The general conclusion was that the statistical error bars associated with the observed parameter measurements have been underestimated or the systematic errors were not properly taken into account in at least 20% of the measurements. The fact that the underestimation of error bars for H0 is so common might explain the apparent 4.4σ discrepancy formally known today as the Hubble tension.