Exploring Spatial Non-Stationarity and Scale Effects of Natural and Anthropogenic Factors on Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) and its influencing factors are crucial for green and low-carbon development and facilitate human well-being in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Although the research on NPP has advanced rapidly, in view of the regional particularity of the YRB, the persistence of its NPP change trend needs to be further discussed and more comprehensive impact factors need to be included in the analysis. Meanwhile, the spatial non-stationarity and scale effects of the impact on NPP when multiple factors are involved remain uncertain. Here, we selected a total of twelve natural and anthropogenic factors and used multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to disentangle the spatial non-stationary relationship between vegetation NPP and related factors and identify the impact scale difference in the YRB. Additionally, we analyze the spatiotemporal variation trend and persistence of NPP during 2000–2020. The results revealed the following: (1) The annual NPP showed a fluctuating increasing trend, and the vegetation NPP in most regions will exhibit a future trend of increasing to decreasing. (2) The effects of different factors show significant spatial non-stationarity. Among them, the intensity of the impact of most natural factors shows a clear strip-shaped distribution in the east-west direction. It is closely related to the spatial distribution characteristics of natural factors in the YRB. In contrast, the regularity of anthropogenic influences is less obvious. (3) The impact scales of different factors on vegetation NPP were significantly different, and this scale changed with time. The factors with small impact scales could better explain the change in vegetation NPP. Interestingly, the impact size and scale of relative humidity on NPP in the YRB are both larger. This may be due to the arid and semi-arid characteristics of the YRB. Our findings could provide policy makers with specific and quantitative insights for protecting the ecological environment in the YRB.