A Statistical Assessment of Water Availability for Hydropower Generation in the Context of Adequacy Analyses

Abstract

The increasing presence of non-programmable renewable energy plants increases the intermittency of the electricity supply and thus threatens the adequacy of a power system. Hydropower can solve this problem due to its flexibility. This paper applies statistical approaches to assess water availability in the context of hydropower generation and adequacy analysis on a seasonal basis for one site in Sicily and the other in Sardinia, where major hydroelectric plants are present. First, an empirical relationship between soil moisture content (SMC) and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is evaluated through linear regression analysis. Then, precipitation trends over the last twenty years are analyzed to determine any effects of global warming on water availability. Finally, Monte Carlo algorithms are used for the stochastic generation of hourly precipitation, direct runoff profiles, and daily SMC profiles. Strong positive and negative correlations between ET0 and SMC (p < 0.05), and R2 ≥ 0.5 are found for both sites, except for summer, and R2 ≥ 0.5 is obtained. The cumulative pH-historical precipitation shows changes in seasonal trends, with evidence of a decrease at the annual level. The algorithms used to synthetically generate hourly precipitation and direct runoff profiles, as well as daily SMC profiles, effectively simulate the statistical variability of the historical profiles of these physical quantities.