A Climatological Survey of Corsica for Power System Analyses

Abstract

Climate and climate change can impact present and future energy production and demand. In light of this issue, this paper conducts climatological analyses focused on the following meteorological quantities: shortwave downward irradiance (SDI), precipitation (Pr), relative humidity (RH), air temperature (Ta), 10 m wind speed (v10), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) for four locations in Corsica. The climate analyses of these atmospheric variables consist of three parts: (1) analysis of the historical trends; (2) correlation analysis; and (3) analysis of climate projections for the decades to come. It is observed that climate change is causing alterations in the trends of Pr, RH, Ta, v10, and DTR. The correlation analysis reveals a positive correlation for the Ta-SDI and v10-Pr pairs (both annually and seasonally), and a negative correlation for Ta-RH (annually and in summer). For the other variable pairs, the sign of the correlations varies depending on the time period and site considered. The trends in the projections from the multi-model ensemble simulations are consistent or inconsistent with each other depending on the time period (annual or seasonal) considered. The observed historical trends suggest that medium-term planning of the Corsican electric power system should already consider ongoing climate change. The correlation analysis provides insights into the combined effect of different atmospheric variables on electrical power systems (EPSs). Climate projections suggest studying long-term planning that is a compromise among the different (but equally likely) outputs of different climate models.