Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distributed Energy System Based on Kernel Principal Component Analysis and KELM Optimized by Fireworks Algorithm

Abstract

Accurate and stable load forecasting has great significance to ensure the safe operation of distributed energy system. For the purpose of improving the accuracy and stability of distributed energy system load forecasting, a forecasting model in view of kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) and fireworks algorithm (FWA) is proposed. First, KPCA modal is used to reduce the dimension of the feature, thus redundant input samples are merged. Next, FWA is employed to optimize the parameters C and σ of KELM. Lastly, the load forecasting modal of KPCA-FWA-KELM is established. The relevant data of a distributed energy system in Beijing, China, is selected for training test to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the new hybrid KPCA-FWA-KELM method has superior performance, robustness and versatility in load prediction of distributed energy systems.