Spatiotemporal Evolution and Nowcasting of the 2022 Yangtze River Mega-Flash Drought

Abstract

Flash droughts challenge early warnings due to their rapid onset, which requires a proper drought index and skillful nowcasting system. A few studies have assessed the nowcast skill for flash droughts using a one-dimensional index, but whether the models can capture their spatiotemporal evolution remains unclear. In this study, a three-dimensional meteorological flash drought index based on the percentile of 15-day moving average precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) is developed. The index is then used to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of a mega-flash drought that occurred in the Yangtze River basin during the summer of 2022. The results show that the mega-flash drought started at the beginning of July in the upper reaches of the river and expanded to the middle and lower reaches at the beginning of August due to the spread of the high-pressure system. The evolution is well captured by the proposed three-dimensional index. The spatial correlations between the China Meteorological Administration global medium-range ensemble forecast system (CMA-GFS)’s nowcast and reanalysis ranged from 0.58 to 0.85, and the hit rate and equitable threat score are 0.54 and 0.26, respectively. This study shows that the CMA-GFS nowcast of the P-ET index roughly captured the drought’s evolution, which can be used for flash drought early warnings and water resource management.