Evaluation and Prediction of Groundwater Quality in the Source Region of the Yellow River

Abstract

With the disturbance of human factors, the groundwater resources in the source region of the Yellow River have gradually depleted and the water quality has become worse, which has seriously affected the development of high-altitude areas. The groundwater quality of the source region of the Yellow River from 2016 to 2020 was evaluated using single-component and comprehensive evaluation methods, following by a prediction of the groundwater quality from 2021 to 2100 based on the RCPS (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) scenarios coupled with the SWAT hydrological model under the CMIP5 global climate model. The results indicated that the groundwater temperature had an increasing trend, pH showed an obvious decreasing trend, and total hardness (Th), sulfate, and ammonia nitrogen (NH4+-N) contents exhibited no obvious increasing or decreasing trend in the source region of the Yellow River during 2016–2020. The increase rate of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in the future climate scenario followed the order of RCP 8.5 > RCP 4.5 > RCP 2.6, and the groundwater contents of TN and TP in the source region of the Yellow River gradually increased. This result is of great significance, as it can help clarify the current situation of groundwater in high-altitude and cold regions, showing the influence of groundwater on global climate change. It provides a reference for the development and utilization planning of groundwater resources in the source region of the Yellow River in the future.