How Useful Are Strain Rates for Estimating the Long-Term Spatial Distribution of Earthquakes?

Abstract

Strain rates have been included in multiplicative hybrid modelling of the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes in New Zealand (NZ) since 2017. Previous modelling has shown a strain rate model to be the most informative input to explain earthquake locations over a fitting period from 1987 to 2006 and a testing period from 2012 to 2015. In the present study, three different shear strain rate models have been included separately as covariates in NZ multiplicative hybrid models, along with other covariates based on known fault locations, their associated slip rates, and proximity to the plate interface. Although the strain rate models differ in their details, there are similarities in their contributions to the performance of hybrid models in terms of information gain per earthquake (IGPE). The inclusion of each strain rate model improves the performance of hybrid models during the previously adopted fitting and testing periods. However, the hybrid models, including strain rates, perform poorly in a reverse testing period from 1951 to 1986. Molchan error diagrams show that the correlations of the strain rate models with earthquake locations are lower over the reverse testing period than from 1987 onwards. Smoothed scatter plots of the strain rate covariates associated with target earthquakes versus time confirm the relatively low correlations before 1987. Moreover, these analyses show that other covariates of the multiplicative models, such as proximity to the plate interface and proximity to mapped faults, were better correlated with earthquake locations prior to 1987. These results suggest that strain rate models based on only a few decades of available geodetic data from a limited network of GNSS stations may not be good indicators of where earthquakes occur over a long time frame.