Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change in the Upper Reaches of the Kaidu River Basin Based on a Modified Budyko Framework

Abstract

The Kaidu River plays an important role in the water development and utilization in the Tarim River basin in northwestern China. In this study, we used a modified Budyko framework, which considered the snowmelt to analyze and attribute the runoff change in the upper Kaidu River basin based on the observations during the period of 1960–2010. The time series was divided into two periods: 1960–1995 and 1996–2010. The contribution rate of runoff change between these two periods and the elasticity coefficient of runoff were estimated to quantify the effect of climatic variables and landscape changes on runoff alteration. The results show that the increase in precipitation was the major cause of increase in runoff, whose contribution accounted for 81.42%. The contribution rate of the landscape change was lower than that of the precipitation change, accounting for 9.07%. The elasticity coefficient of runoff to precipitation was 1.24, and the elasticity coefficient of runoff to the landscape was −0.74. Compared with the original Budyko framework, without considering the snowmelt, the contribution rates of precipitation and potential evaporation to runoff change would decrease after considering the snowmelt in the modified Budyko framework, while the contribution rate of landscape would increase. The increased snow ratio would cause more fluctuations in the runoff. This study provides a valuable reference for the water resources management in the upper Kaidu River basin and deepens our understanding of the response of runoff to climate change in snowmelt-affected regions.