Research on Risk Evolution Mechanism of Urban River Ecological Governance Project Based on Social Network Analysis

Abstract

The evolution and transfer of risk elements of urban river ecological management projects are primarily responsible for the difficulty of risk management in these projects. In this paper, we identify 63 risk elements of urban river ecological management projects using in-depth literature reviews and brainstorming. The association among all the risk elements is constructed using an expert survey method, and the risk elements are utilized as network nodes. The relationships between these nodes are then used as network edges (i.e., paths) to construct a complex network model. By using the network visualization and analysis tool anaconda3, we analyze the overall and local characteristic parameters of the risk network. The risk transmission characteristics of the urban river ecological management project are analyzed according to the parameter characteristics to reveal the inner relationships of risk transmission inherent in the complex network. We use the Jinghe ecological management project in Jinghe New City to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The study demonstrates that the starting node risk needs to be controlled, and the conduction node that indirectly triggers risk propagation needs to be cut off to achieve risk prevention and control. Accordingly, the risk prevention strategy is proposed, namely, paying close attention to the starting nodes of schedule delay risk, construction cycle risk and cost overrun risk, as well as the conduction risk nodes of project complexity risk, quality assessment risk, construction accident risk and improper drawing design risk. Effective measures should be taken to control the transmission and occurrence of risks based on these two aspects. The study reveals the network evolution of risk factors, which enriches the theory of the risk factor network evolution and evaluation of urban river ecological management projects.