Copula-Based Multivariate Simulation Approach for Flood Risk Transfer of Multi-Reservoirs in the Weihe River, China

Abstract

The interplay of multi-reservoirs is critical in reservoir joint disposal and water conservancy projects. As the flood risk of upstream hydrological stations could be transferred and unevenly distributed to downstream tributary stations, flood risk transfer through multi-reservoirs warrants further investigation. This study proposed a copula simulation approach to develop a joint flood risk distribution of multi-reservoirs (spanning Xianyang, Huaxian County, and Zhangjiashan) in a drainage tributary of the Weihe River. Pair-copulas of each reservoir pair were constructed to analyse the correlations between the reservoir sites. The approach was then used to create a joint flood risk distribution for the reservoirs. The flood risk and corresponding flood volume of Zhangjiashan were calculated based on the flood risk levels of Xianyang and Huaxian County. The results indicate that the flood risks of Huaxian County would be transferred to Xianyang and Zhangjiashan to some extent, and Xianyang could mitigate more flood risks from Huaxian County than from Zhangjiashan. The findings have significance for informed decision-making regarding the Zhangjiashan reservoir construction project.