Spatial Analysis of the 2017 Outbreak of Hemorrhagic Disease and Physiographic Region in the Eastern United States

Abstract

Hemorrhagic disease (HD) is considered one of the most significant infectious diseases of white-tailed deer in North America. Investigations into environmental conditions associated with outbreaks suggest drought conditions are strongly correlated with outbreaks in some regions of the United States. However, during 2017, an HD outbreak occurred in the Eastern United States which appeared to be associated with a specific physiographic region, the Appalachian Plateau, and not drought conditions. The objective of this study was to determine if reported HD in white-tailed deer in 2017 was correlated with physiographic region. There were 456 reports of HD from 1605 counties across 26 states and 12 physiographic regions. Of the 93 HD reports confirmed by virus isolation, 76.3% (71/93) were identified as EHDV-2 and 66.2% (47/71) were from the Appalachian Plateau. A report of HD was 4.4 times more likely to occur in the Appalachian Plateau than not in 2017. Autologistic regression models suggested a statistically significant spatial dependence. The underlying factors explaining this correlation are unknown, but may be related to a variety of host, vector, or environmental factors. This unique outbreak and its implications for HD epidemiology highlight the importance for increased surveillance and reporting efforts in the future.