Incorporating Persistent Scatterer Interferometry and Radon Anomaly to Understand the Anar Fault Mechanism and Observing New Evidence of Intensified Activity

Abstract

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) monitors surface change and displacement over a large area with millimeter-level precision and meter-level resolution. Anar fault, with a length of ~200 km, is located in central Iran. Recent seismological studies on the fault indicated that it is approaching the end of its seismic cycle. Although a large earthquake is imminent, the mechanism of the fault is not well understood. Therefore, understanding and discovering the mechanism of Anar fault remains a challenge. Here, we present an approach of displacement fault analysis utilizing a combination of InSAR data obtained from the persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) method and 178 Sentinel-1 images (ascending and descending) (2017–2020). We incorporated groundwater samples from 40 wells, radon concentration anomaly mapping, Global Positioning System (GPS), and 3D displacement measurement acquired over four years (2016–2020). We investigated and monitored the deformation of the fault plate’s behavior over the last three years (2017–2020) to explore new evidence and signature of displacement. The results show that the time series analysis in the fault range has an increasing displacement rate in all dimensions. We observed that the line-of-sight (LOS) displacement rate varied from −15 mm to 5 mm per year. Our calculations show that the E–W, N–S, and vertical displacement rates of the fault blocks are 2 mm to −2 mm, 6 mm to −6 mm, and 2 mm to −4 mm per year, respectively. An anomaly map of the radon concentration shows that the complete alignment of the high concentration ranges with the fault strike and the radon concentration increased on average from 23.85 Bq/L to 25.30 Bq/L over these three years. Therefore, we predict rising the radon concentration is due to the increase in activity which resulted in a deformation. Finally, our findings show that the Anar fault is an oblique and right-lateral strike-slip with a normal component mechanism. We validated the proposed method and our results by comparing the GPS field data and PSI measurements. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the PSI measurement is estimated to be 0.142 mm. Based on the supporting evidence and signature, we conclude that the Anar fault activity increased between 2017 and 2020.