Decoding the Dynamics of Climate Change Impact: Temporal Patterns of Surface Warming and Melting on the Nivlisen Ice Shelf, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamics of surface melting in Antarctica, which are crucial for understanding glacier and ice sheet behavior and monitoring polar climate change. Specifically, we focus on the Nivlisen ice shelf in East Antarctica, examining melt ponds, supra glacial lakes (SGLs), seasonal surface melt extent, and surface ice flow velocity. Spatial and temporal analysis is based on Landsat and Sentinel-1 data from the austral summers of 2000 to 2023. Between 2000 and 2014, melt ponds and SGLs on the ice shelf covered roughly 1 km2. However, from 2015 to 2023, surface melting increased consistently, leading to more extensive melt ponds and SGLs. Significant SGL depths were observed in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020, with 2008, 2016, and 2020 showing the highest volumes and progressive SGL area growth. We also examined the relationship between seasonal surface melt extent and ice flow velocity. Validation efforts involved ground truth data from a melt pond in central Dronning Maud Land (cDML) during the 2022–2023 austral summer, along with model-based results. The observed increase in melt pond depth and volume may significantly impact ice shelf stability, potentially accelerating ice flow and ice shelf destabilization. Continuous monitoring is essential for accurately assessing climate change’s ongoing impact on Antarctic ice shelves.