Identification of Key Carbon Emission Sectors and Analysis of Emission Effects in China

Abstract

Analysis of sectors’ emission effects is crucial for identifying key emission sectors and reducing carbon. Current literature for calculating sectors’ emission effects in China ignore intermediate demand. This might introduce inaccuracy into the analyzed results. To solve this gap, this paper used an alternative input–output method to analyze sectors’ emission effects in China. Firstly, it identifies the key emission sectors and their emission effect characteristics from 2005 to 2017. Then, the reasons for the changes in these sectors’ emission effects are analyzed. Lastly, emission effects were further decomposed so that the driving relationships of emissions among these sectors can be sorted out. The results show that the overall key emission sectors were metal smelting and processing and nonmetal mineral products. The backward-emission-dominant sectors were construction, chemical products, other services (such as finance, health and education), metal products, and so on. The forward-emission-dominant sectors were production and supply of electricity and heat, transportation, storage, postal, and telecommunications services. In 2017, transportation, storage, postal, and telecommunications services’ own final demand emissions and forward emissions accounted for 41.7% and 58.3%, respectively, of this sector’s direct emissions. Moreover, from 2005 to 2017, the main sector emission paths affecting the growth of China’s emissions shifted from manufacturing and construction industries to service industries. Accordingly, strategies for emission reduction, such as substituting pollution inputs, were proposed and analyzed. The research provides an important reference for the Chinese government to adopt appropriate measures to reduce carbon.