Thermal Power Generation Efficiency and Renewable Energy Power Generation Substitution Transition Effect: A Case Study of Provinces in China

Abstract

Abstract This study evaluates the production efficiency and Total Factor Energy Efficiency (TFEE) of China's provincial thermal power industry using the super-efficiency SBM model, complemented by panel regression to assess renewable energy's potential substitutive effects on thermal power production. Additionally, spatial econometric regression analysis clarifies the impact of inter-regional electricity output on thermal power production. Key findings include:1.Regional Efficiency Comparison: Average production efficiency ranks as "East > West > Central," with the West marginally leading over the Central region. In contrast, average TFEE follows "East > Central > West," with the Western region lagging significantly.2. Influential Factors on Thermal Power: Internally, installed capacity, energy consumption, and production efficiency impact thermal power. Externally, hydropower, wind power, and nuclear power show significant substitutive potential, with hydropower's potential increasing from East to West, while wind power's potential decreases. Photovoltaic impact remains negligible.3. Cross-Regional Electricity Transmission: Improved transmission capabilities have broadened renewable energy plants' influence but led to provincial generation exceeding demand. Hydropower, wind power, and nuclear energy from neighboring provinces significantly substitute for thermal power, in that order, with minimal impact from photovoltaics. Policy recommendations focus on the importance of TFEE and production efficiency in thermal power, advocating for inter-regional electricity transfer, and enhancing grid intelligence to optimize the thermal power industry's efficiency, promote sustainable development, and balance power supply and demand. These guidelines aim to inform future energy structure adjustments and urban planning.