Study on Risk Assessment of Flash Floods in Hubei Province

Abstract

Flash floods are typically associated with short, high-intensity and extreme rain-storms, and they are characterized by short response time and severely impact and damage communities in different areas in China. In order to scientifically assess the risks of flash floods, this paper takes Hubei Province as an example to carry out risk assessment. Based on Pearson correlation coefficient and principal component analysis methods, 14 factors were selected from 98 factors to establish a risk assessment model. The confidence coefficient model and multi-factor superposition method were used to determine the weight of each risk factor, and a risk map of Hubei Province was finally constructed. The results show that medium-high risk areas in Huanggang account for 47.00%, and high-risk areas account for 8.70%, with both areas adding up to more than 50%, followed by more than 40% in Shiyan, E’zhou and Xianning, and more than 30% in Huangshi, Yichang, Xiangyang, Jingmen and Suizhou. The risk level distribution is highly consistent with the location and frequency of flash flood disasters, shows high reliability, and can provide data support for flash flood disaster prevention and control. This study used a quantitative method to determine the key factors affecting flash flood disasters and provides a reference and basis for flash flood risk assessment in other provinces in China.