Spatial Conservation Prioritization of Persian Squirrel Based on Habitat Suitability and Climate-Induced Forest Mortality Risk

Abstract

The Zagros forests in Iran are currently experiencing an exacerbation of climate-induced mortality, placing the Persian squirrel, a keystone species reliant on these ecosystems, in jeopardy. Addressing this imminent threat, our research employed a spatial prioritization methodology, integrating assessments of habitat suitability and mortality risk. Utilizing a weighted ensemble approach, incorporating the strengths of diverse models and expert rules, we discerned that approximately 62% of surveyed forests are at risk, with 7% classified as high risk and 17% as very high risk. Notably, 83% of the forests exhibited varying degrees of habitat suitability, with 11% and 12% demonstrating high and very high suitability, respectively. Employing a conservation prioritization framework, we systematically categorized habitats into priority classes, with 8%, 17%, 29%, and 46% assigned to very high, high, moderate, and low conservation priority classes, respectively. Significantly, areas classified as very high priority demand immediate restoration efforts due to ongoing mortality, while other priority classes underscore the importance of protection and prevention in unaffected habitats. Acknowledging the irreversible nature of current climatic conditions in the Zagros forests, our strategic emphasis aligns with conservation triage principles, prioritizing the preservation of intact habitats yet to succumb to irreversible mortality.