Circulation and Transport Processes during an Extreme Freshwater Discharge Event at the Tagus Estuary

Abstract

During the winter of 2013, the Tagus estuary was under the influence of intense winds and extreme freshwater discharge that changed its hydrodynamics and, consequently, the salt and heat transport. Moreover, the dynamics of the estuary may change due to climate change which will increase the frequency of heat waves and increase the mean sea level. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to study the impact of the future increase in air temperature and mean sea level under extreme events, such as that in the winter of 2013, to ascertain the foreseen changes in water properties transport within the estuary and near coastal zone. Several scenarios were developed and explored, using the Delft3D model suite, considering the results of the CMIP6 report as forcing conditions. Before the event, the mixing region of the estuary presented well-mixed conditions and its marine area a slight stratification. During the event, the estuary was filled with freshwater and the mixing region migrated toward the coast, leading to lower water temperature values inside the estuary. SLR has a higher impact on the salinity and stratification patterns than the air temperature increase. The response of water temperature is directly related to the increase in air temperature. The estuary mouth and the shallow regions will be more prone to changes than the upstream region of the estuary. The projected changes are directly linked to the future CO2 emissions scenarios, being intensive with the highest emission scenario.