Spatially Explicit Assessment of the Feasibility of Sustainable Aviation Fuels Production in Brazil: Results of Three Case Studies

Abstract

For international civil aviation to be able to significantly reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) needs to be made feasible. This paper presents the results of an assessment of the feasibility of production of SAF in Brazil, considering three certified routes, based on the dedicated production of eucalyptus, soy, sugarcane and corn. The results presented here refer to the production of biomass in selected locations, aiming to reduce GHG emissions and minimise production costs. Considering that the opportunity costs of feedstocks were not observed, the minimum selling price (MSP) of SAF in the reference case was estimated at 13.4 EUR·GJ−1 for the production based on soybean oil (HEFA-SPK route), 21.0 EUR·GJ−1 for the production based on ethanol from sugarcane and corn (ATJ-SPK) and 32.0 EUR·GJ−1 from eucalyptus (FT-SPK). These values refer to SAF’s nth industrial plant and biomass costs that are compatible with the current agricultural yields in Brazil but which are also the highest. The MSP results are relatively low compared to the estimates available in the literature, but they do not show the strict economic viability of SAFs in the short- to medium-term, mainly because of the low prices of fossil fuels.