Areas Available for the Potential Sustainable Expansion of Soy in Brazil: A Geospatial Assessment Using the SAFmaps Database

Abstract

Recently, soybean production almost doubled in Brazil, reaching 122 million tonnes, and it is expected to increase even more. Brazil is the world’s largest producer and is primarily an exporter. From a sustainability point of view, soy production has been strongly criticized mainly in relation to deforestation, albeit for indirect effects. Soybean oil is a potential feedstock for the production of bio-jet fuels, which needs to be sustainable according to international criteria (sustainable aviation fuels—SAF). This paper aims to estimate the areas still available for soy expansion in Brazil, considering conditions that would allow the production of SAF. We used the SAFmaps platform, a geospatial database with information on the most promising bioenergy crops for SAF and their supply chains. Just by displacing pastures and observing a set of constraints, the total area available for expansion was estimated at 192.8 thousand km2, of which 43% is of high suitability. These areas are concentrated in the Center-West region. Assuming a vertical supply chain, the results of the case studies of SAF production indicate potential feasibility, but some hypotheses considered are optimistic. Moreover, the results indicate that there can be sustainable production of soybean oil and contribution to the production of SAF.