Analysis of Features Affecting Contracted Rate of Return of Korean PPP Projects

Abstract

Various risk factors influence the success of public–private partnership (PPP) projects. This study analyzes the risk attributes of PPP projects and develops a regression model based on a 20-year PPP project database to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting the contracted internal rate of return (CIRR) of PPP projects. Although the risk factors of PPP projects have been widely studied, the factors affecting CIRR have not been explored. Information from the intra-info DB system managed by Korea Development Institute was used to calculate the impact of the variables on CIRR. It was observed that the CIRR of Korea’s PPP projects did not reflect the risks associated with the facility types, service area, amount of private investment, and operation period accurately. Financing costs did not demonstrate a statistically significant relationship with the CIRR either. Furthermore, the CIRR of projects with a minimum revenue guarantee option was found to be higher than that of projects without. The CIRR of the current project was found to be closely related to the number of bidding competitors and the CIRR values of previous projects that are similar to the current one. This is attributed to a failure in the bureaucratic negotiation behavior of the parties due to their avoidance of responsibilities.