A Novel Vaccine Selection Decision-Making Model (VSDMM) for COVID-19

Abstract

Selecting a vaccine for fighting a pandemic is one of the serious issues in healthcare. Novel decision models for vaccine selection need to be developed. In this study, a novel vaccine selection decision-making model (VSDMM) was proposed and developed, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique, which assesses many alternatives (vaccines) using multi-criteria to support decision making. To feed data to the VSDMM, six coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccines were selected in a case study to highlight the applicability of the proposed model. Each vaccine was compared to the others with respect to six criteria and all criteria were compared to calculate the relative weights. The proposed criteria include (1) vaccine availability; (2) vaccine formula; (3) vaccine efficacy; (4) vaccine-related side effects; (5) cost savings, and (6) host-related factors. Using the selected criteria, experts responded to questions and currently available COVID-19 vaccines were ranked according to their weight in the model. A sensitivity analysis was introduced to assess the model robustness and the impacts of changing criteria weights on the results. The VSDMM is flexible in terms of its ability to accept more vaccine alternatives and/or more criteria. It could also be applied to other current or future pandemics/epidemics in the world. In conclusion, this is the first report to propose a VSDMM for selecting the most suitable vaccines in pandemic/epidemic situations or any other situations in which vaccine selection and usage may be deemed necessary.