Prediction and Knowledge Mining of Outdoor Atmospheric Corrosion Rates of Low Alloy Steels Based on the Random Forests Approach

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to develop an approach to forecast the outdoor atmospheric corrosion rate of low alloy steels and do corrosion-knowledge mining by using a Random Forests algorithm as a mining tool. We collected the corrosion data of 17 low alloy steels under 6 atmospheric corrosion test stations in China over 16 years as the experimental datasets. Based on the datasets, a Random Forests model is established to implement the purpose of the corrosion rate prediction and data-mining. The results showed that the random forests can achieve the best generalization results compared to the commonly used machine learning methods such as the artificial neural network, support vector regression, and logistic regression. In addition, the results also showed that regarding the effect to the corrosion rate, environmental factors contributed more than chemical compositions in the low alloy steels, but as exposure time increases, the effect of the environmental factors will gradually become less. Furthermore, we give the effect changes of six environmental factors (Cl− concentration, SO2 concentration, relative humidity, temperature, rainfall, and pH) on corrosion with exposure time increasing, and the results illustrated that pH had a significant contribution to the corrosion of the entire process. The paper also dealt with the problem of the corrosion rate forecast, especially for changing environmental factors situations, and obtained the qualitative and quantitative results of influences of each environmental factor on corrosion.