Ecological Risk Assessment and Impact Factor Analysis of Ecological Spatial Patterns in Coastal Counties: Taking Dalian Pulandian District as an Example

Abstract

A scientific foundation for the sustainable development of ecosystems and the improvement of the ecological spatial security pattern in the area is provided by carrying out a scientific assessment of ecological risk levels in coastal counties. An ecological risk assessment model was established in Pulandian district, Dalian, based on four periods of land use data from 1990 to 2020 combined with the PSR model. The spatial and temporal evolution of ecological risk in Pulandian was analyzed on this basis, and an exploratory regression analysis and a geographically weighted regression model were then used to explore the driving role of natural and social factors on comprehensive ecological risk in coastal counties. The findings demonstrate that there is an obvious ecological landscape type of conversion, with the majority of arable land being converted to forest land in northcentral and southwest areas, reflecting an improvement in the ecological environment and air quality, and the majority of coastal beach land being converted to construction land among the volumes transferred out and in. The area of high risk increased by 73.17% during the course of 30 years, with the majority of it concentrated in the research areas southern Fengrong, Tiexi, and Taiping regions in 1990 before expanding to the northeast, southeast, and central regions. The status index and response index both show a decline followed by an increase in change, while the pressure index shows a rising tendency with socioeconomic progress. The comprehensive ecological risk in the study area is significantly influenced by the urbanization rate, the ratio of environmental protection investment to GDP, the ecosystem service index, and the ecological space–land use ratio, with the urbanization rate displaying more overt negative correlation-driving characteristics, the ratio of environmental protection investment to GDP displaying significant spatial division characteristics, and the ecological space–land use ratio being an important factor. The findings serve as a foundation for decisions on ecological risk avoidance, control, and construction in Pulandian.