Development Cycle Modeling: Resource Estimation

Abstract

This paper presents results produced by a domain-independent system development model that enables objective and quantitative calculation of certain development cycle characteristics. The presentation recounts the model’s motivation and includes an outline of the model’s structure. The outline shows that the model is constructive. As such, it provides an explanatory mechanism for the results that it produces, not just a representation of qualitative observations or measured data. The model is a Statistical Agent-based Model of Development and Evaluation (SAbMDE); and it appears to be novel with respect to previous design theory and methodology work. This paper focuses on one development cycle characteristic: resource utilization. The model’s resource estimation capability is compared to Boehm’s long-used software development estimation techniques. His Cone of Uncertainty (COU) captures project estimation accuracy empirically at project start but intuitively over a project’s duration. SAbMDE calculates estimation accuracy at start up and over project duration; and SAbMDE duplicates the COU’s empirical values. Additionally, SAbMDE produces results very similar to the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO) effort estimation for a wide range of input values.