Simulating Long-Term Development of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Plant Biomass, and Soil Moisture of a Temperate Grassland Ecosystem under Elevated Atmospheric CO2

Abstract

The rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have effects on the worldwide ecosystems such as an increase in biomass production as well as changing soil processes and conditions. Since this affects the ecosystem’s net balance of greenhouse gas emissions, reliable projections about the CO2 impact are required. Deterministic models can capture the interrelated biological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes under changing CO2 concentrations if long-term observations for model testing are provided. We used 13 years of data on above-ground biomass production, soil moisture, and emissions of CO2 and N2O from the Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) grassland experiment in Giessen, Germany. Then, the LandscapeDNDC ecosystem model was calibrated with data measured under current CO2 concentrations and validated under elevated CO2. Depending on the hydrological conditions, different CO2 effects were observed and captured well for all ecosystem variables but N2O emissions. Confidence intervals of ensemble simulations covered up to 96% of measured biomass and CO2 emission values, while soil water content was well simulated in terms of annual cycle and location-specific CO2 effects. N2O emissions under elevated CO2 could not be reproduced, presumably due to a rarely considered mineralization process of organic nitrogen, which is not yet included in LandscapeDNDC.