Temporal and Spatial Variation in Rainfall Erosivity in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China

Abstract

The Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China (RHRNEC) is a critical grain production area in China, and soil erosion is a major problem in this region. To determine spatial and temporal changes in rainfall erosivity (RE) in the RHRNEC and generate information useful for soil and water conservation, agricultural management, and ecological protection efforts, a RE index consisting of nine erosivity indices based on normal and extreme precipitation was established. The normal RE index (NREI) comprised annual RE (ARE), wet season RE (WRE), dry season RE (DRE), typical wet-month RE (TWRE), and typical dry-month RE (TDRE), and the extreme RE index set (EREI) comprised maximum one-day RE (RE × 1 day), maximum five consecutive days RE (RE × 5 day), storm RE (RE50), and maximum continuous RE (CRE). ARE, WRE, and TWRE decreased at relative rates of 2.5%, 2.9%, and 4.1%, respectively. By comparison, DRE increased at a non-significant relative rate of 6.3%, and all extreme RE indices decreased at a non-significant rate relative to 1981–2015 mean values. The future trends for all RE indices were predicted to be opposite to historical trends. The future trends and historical trends of all indices exhibited opposite patterns. RE gradually increased from north to south, and WRE, DRE, and all extreme RE indices were significantly negatively correlated with longitude, latitude, and altitude (p < 0.05). ARE, WRE, and TWRE showed increasing trends in the north and south and decreasing trends in the center. The findings are useful for soil and water conservation, especially for agricultural management and ecological protection.