Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Storage in Northwestern Tunisia: Control of Rhyzopertha dominica by Aeration

Abstract

This study focuses on the assessment of the impact of climate change on the efficiency of ambient air aeration and the dynamics of Rhyzopertha dominica, which is a major pest that infests wheat stored in Tunisia. To project future climate conditions for the period 2041–2070, two climate models, namely MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRMCM5.1, were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The study examined the historical and projected feasibility of aeration in six natural regions located in northwestern Tunisia, where wheat is the main crop, and investigated the potential consequences of climate change on the dynamics of R. dominica. Using a heat and mass transfer model in an unaerated wheat silo, the temperature and moisture distributions in the grain mass were used to predict the development, reproduction, and survival of R. dominica. The results revealed a decline in favorable aeration hours due to climate change, resulting in an average reduction of 25% across the six regions. This reduction in aerated hours could significantly affect the effectiveness of aeration as a means of pest control. The mean difference comparisons, based on Tukey’s honestly significant difference (HSD) test, revealed a significant effect of climate change on the developmental parameters of R. dominica for the period 2041–2070 compared to the period 1970–1997. According to the insect dynamic model, future climate scenarios are expected to induce changes in the development duration, reproduction, and survival rates of R. dominica. The model predicts a (i) 10–15% extension in the development duration, (ii) 20–30% decrease in reproduction, and (iii) 5–10% decrease in survival relative to the historical period. These results underscore the critical importance of implementing adaptive pest management strategies for stored wheat.