Assessment of the Current and Projected Conditions of Water Availability in the Sevastopol Region for Grape Growing

Abstract

Viticulture is a sector very sensitive to climate change. Observed and expected changes in temperature and precipitation can change the conditions necessary for viticulture in a particular area or make these conditions totally unsuitable for viticulture. Precipitation (water availability) and air temperature are the key meteorological parameters regulating the quality of grapes and wine. We used an ensemble of model data from the CMIP6 project to evaluate all possible changes in water availability in the area around Sevastopol by the middle and the end of the 21st century for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The hydrothermal coefficient and dryness index have been used to evaluate the water availability. The results have shown that, based on the indices values, viticulture in the study region will be possible without irrigation, but, at the same time, the vines may experience a certain level of dryness.