Performance Analysis of Energy Production of Large-Scale Solar Plants Based on Artificial Intelligence (Machine Learning) Technique

Abstract

Due to the continual fusion reaction, the sun generates tremendous energy. This solar energy is freely available and can be extracted by installing a large-scale solar power plant. Therefore, such PV solar plants are key contributors to cutting the energy deficit in remote areas. This study focused on predicting a 10-year performance analysis of a large-scale solar power plant by using 1 year of real-time data from the Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (QASP) situated in Bahawalpur, Pakistan. For the purpose of prediction, the ARIMA model was developed using Python, which is one of the best tools in machine learning. Since ARIMA is a statistical technique for prediction, by using the developed model through Python, we predicted the values of the performance ratio (PR), production amount (MWh), and plan of array (POA) of the solar plant for the next 10 years using 1 year of real-time data. This machine learning prediction technique is very effective and efficient, compared with other traditional prediction and forecasting techniques, for estimating the performance of the solar power plant and the status of the solar power plant in the long-term future. The forecasting/prediction results acquired from the process show that power production during the next ten years increases to approximately 400 MW and that POA will grow from 6.8 to 7.8 W/m2. However, a decline occurred in the performance ratio, which decreased from 76.7% to 73%. Based on these results, the ARIMA model for predicting solar power generation is effective and can be utilized for any solar power plant.