Framework to Study the Effects of Climate Change on Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Societies: Case Study of Nitrates in Drinking Water in Southern Finland

Abstract

Climate change may alter the services ecosystems provide by changing ecosystem functioning. As ecosystems can also resist environmental perturbations, it is crucial to consider the different processes that influence resilience. Our case study considered increased NO3− concentration in drinking water due to the climate change. We analyzed changes in ecosystem services connected to water purification at a catchment scale in southern Finland. We combined climate change scenarios with process-based forest growth (PREBAS) and eco-hydrological (PERSiST and INCA) models. We improved traditional model calibration by timing of forest phenology and snow-covered period from network of cameras and satellite data. We upscaled the combined modelling results with scenarios of population growth to form vulnerability maps. The boreal ecosystems seemed to be strongly buffered against NO3- leaching by increase in evapotranspiration and vegetation NO3- uptake. Societal vulnerability varied greatly between scenarios and municipalities. The most vulnerable were agricultural areas on permeable soil types.