Temporal Instability and Transferability Analysis of Daytime and Nighttime Motorcyclist-Injury Severities Considering Unobserved Heterogeneity of Data

Abstract

Using motorcycle crash data from 2016 to 2019, this paper aims to uncover and compare the risk factors that influence the severity of motorcyclist injuries sustained in daytime and nighttime motorcycle crashes in Thailand. Mixed-ordered probit models with means and variances in heterogeneity were used to take into consideration unobserved heterogeneity. The temporal instability of risk factors was also extensively explored. The results show that male motorcyclists, speeding, fatigue, crashes in work zones, crashes on raised median roads, intersection-related crashes, crashes on wet roads, and crashes on unlit roads are all factors that are positively associated with the risk of death and serious injury in nighttime crashes. The presence of pillions, crashes on two-lane roads, crashes on depressed/flush median roads, crashes in rural areas, U-turn-related crashes, weekend crashes involving heavy vehicles, and head-on crashes are factors that were positively associated with risk of death and serious injury for both daytime and nighttime crashes. This study’s findings provide evidence that factors that influence motorcycle accidents during the daytime and nighttime vary significantly. Additionally, nighttime crashes typically carried a higher risk of fatalities or serious injuries compared to daytime crashes. A discussion of policy recommendations is also provided.