An Application of Improved MODIS-Based Potential Evapotranspiration Estimates in a Humid Tropic Brantas Watershed—Implications for Agricultural Water Management

Abstract

The reliance on native MODIS-16 PET potential evapotranspiration (PET) in scarce-data-driven areas is growing in support among ecohydrological studies, yet information about its performance is limited or unknown as validation studies are mostly concentrated in developed countries. This study aimed to assess its performance at the monthly level using four ground measurements in a tropical watershed system with complex topography, applying a machine learning artificial neural network (ANN) to improve the estimates, and using the ANN-adjusted MODIS-16 PET to characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of PET in the Brantas watershed, as well as to understand the monthly patterns of water deficiency in areas under eight different vegetation covers. The results showed that the native MODIS-16 PET experienced overestimation with an RMSE of 37–66 mm/month and NRSME of up to 33%. The performance decreased in drier periods. The ANN-based adjustment using only one variable showed improved estimates with a reduction of RSME to only 14 mm and lower than 10% NRMSE. Sari-temporal patterns of PET in the Brantas watershed showed that the PET characteristics were not uniform. The southern part of the Brantas watershed has areas with relatively lower PET that are, thus, more prone to water deficiency. Complex topography and climate gradients within the watershed apparently became the multi-controllers of PET variations. The difference in vegetation cover also influenced the magnitudes of water deficiency.