Accounting for Economic Factors in Socio-Hydrology: Optimization under Uncertainty and Climate Change

Abstract

This paper reframes the socio-hydrology analysis as an optimization problem. To achieve this, we first develop a valuation scheme to estimate net benefits of development in a flood plain, consisting of benefits obtained from land and housing, less the costs of flood management and flood damage. Then we look for an optimal safety factor for the levee heightening strategy within the ‘Technosociety’ scenario for a given time series of future flood events. This is further extended to finding an optimal strategy in the case of uncertainty concerning flood timings and intensities. We suggest an approach for both stationary and non-stationary evolution of flood dynamics and examine how the levee heightening strategy is affected by the magnitude of climate change. We find that the preferred management option depends strongly on the value of the land services the area provides.