Modeling and Analysis of Optimal Strategies for Leveraging Ride-Sourcing Services in Hurricane Evacuation

Abstract

In many large-scale evacuations, public agencies often have limited resources to evacuate all citizens, especially vulnerable populations such as the elderly and disabled people, and the demand for additional transportation means for evacuation can be high. The recent development of ride-sourcing companies can be leveraged in evacuations as an additional and important resource in future evacuation planning. In contrast to public transit, the availability of ride-sourcing drivers is highly dependent on the price, since surge pricing will occur when the demand is high and the supply is low. The key challenge is thus to find the balance between evacuation demand and driver supply. Based on the two-sided market theory, we propose mathematical modeling and analysis strategies that can help balance demand and supply through a pricing mechanism designed for ride-sourcing services in evacuation. A subsidy is considered in the model such that lower-income and vulnerable individuals could benefit from ride-sourcing services. A hypothetical hurricane evacuation scenario in New York City in the case study showed the feasibility of the proposed method and the applicability of subsidies for ride-sourcing services in evacuation. The methodology and results given in this research can provide useful insights for modeling on-demand ride-sourcing for future evacuation planning.