Proposal for Mathematical and Parallel Computing Modeling as a Decision Support System for Actuarial Sciences

Abstract

This paper aims to find the actuarial tables that best represent the occurrences of mortality and disability in the Brazilian Armed Forces, thus providing a better dimensioning of the costs of military pensions to be paid by the pension system. To achieve this goal, an optimization software was developed that tests 53 actuarial tables for the death of valid military personnel, 21 boards for entry into the disability of assets, and 21 boards for mortality of invalids. The software performs 199 distinct adherence tests for each table analyzed through linear aggravations and de-escalations in the probabilities of death and disability. The statistical–mathematical method used was the chi-square adherence test in which the selected table is the one with the null hypothesis “observed data” equal to the “expected data” with the highest degree of accuracy. It is expected to bring a significant contribution to society, as a model of greater accuracy reduces the risk of a large difference between the projected cost and the cost observed on the date of the year, thus contributing to the maintenance of public governance. Additionally, the unprecedented and dual nature of the methodology presented here stands out. As a practical contribution, we emphasize that the results presented streamline the calculation of actuarial projections, reducing by more than 90% the processing times of calculations referring to actuarial projections of retirees from the armed forces. As a limitation of the study, we emphasize that, although possibly replicable, the database was restricted only to the Brazilian Armed Forces.