Study on Prediction of Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in Universities Based on Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

With the continuous development of China’s economy, the phenomenon of energy scarcity has become more and more prominent, for which China has put forward the strategic goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality (double carbon target). As densely populated areas, the demand for energy is especially tight in universities. In combination with the work of “conservation-oriented colleges” carried out by the Ministry of Education, the accurate monthly electrical and water energy consumption of Kunming University of Science and Technology from 2018–2021 was counted, and the data were plotted into an energy consumption analysis chart to determine its compliance with the prediction range of the smoothing index prediction model. The corresponding smoothing indices were calculated by writing smoothing formulas through Excel, and, finally, the overall energy consumption indexes for 2022 and 2023 were successfully predicted using the exponential smoothing method. The errors between the real and forecasted values of electricity and water consumption in 2021 are reduced to 2.61% and 2.44%. The smoothing index predicts that the baseline discounted electricity energy consumption in 2022 is 5,423,658.235 kgce and in 2023 is 5,758,865.224 kgce; on the other hand, the baseline discounted water energy consumption in 2022 is predicted to be 632,654.321 kgce, while in 2023 it is predicted to be 652,321.238 kgce. The projected values can be used as an early warning line for the energy consumption index, and long-term management approaches and data support for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction can be effectively provided. The mentioned research provides an important reference for the proposal and implementation of efficient management measures, and provides strong theoretical technical support for the implementation of the carbon peak and neutrality in universities.