The Role of Climate in Ignition Frequency

Author:

Wilson Nicholas1,Yebra Marta12ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

2. School of Engineering, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Abstract

Many fire management agencies aim to detect and suppress all ignitions within their jurisdiction and may benefit from understanding the causes of year-to-year variation. Ignition variation is likely to be associated with climatically driven changes in fuel quantity or moisture in landscapes where ignition sources vary little over similar temporal scales. We assessed how monthly ignitions varied in south-eastern Australia in response to climate anomalies over approximately nine years. Once accounting for seasonal effects, ignitions increased with temperature and vapour pressure deficit anomalies and decreased with precipitation anomalies. These findings indicate that climatic conditions play a role in limiting ignition frequency via effects on fuel moisture. Our models predicted that warmer and drier conditions during our study caused considerable increases in ignition frequency compared to the long-term average reference period (1961–1990). Like many fire-prone landscapes around the world, our study area is projected to become hotter and drier because of climate change. Fire management agencies will need to improve fire detection and suppression capabilities under a future climate.

Funder

Optus as part of the ANU-Optus Bushfire Research Centre of Excellence

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Safety Research,Environmental Science (miscellaneous),Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality,Building and Construction,Forestry

Reference49 articles.

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