Aridity Analysis Using a Prospective Geospatial Simulation Model in This Mid-Century for the Northwest Region of Mexico

Abstract

Aridity is a condition in which there is a moisture deficit in the air and soil that affects large areas of the earth’s surface worldwide. It is a global problem caused mainly by factors related to climatic events and human actions. In the arid regions of Mexico, prolonged periods of drought are very common and water scarcity is the predominant feature. The main objective of this study is to develop a prospective geospatial simulation model for arid zones in the short and medium term (2030 and 2050) for the northwestern region of Mexico. A retrospective analysis of the variables that cause aridity was conducted based on historical data from satellite information obtained from various sources between 1985 and 2020, taking 2020 as the reference year; from this information the rate of change per year was obtained, followed by the simulated rates of change for the years 2030 and 2050. A methodology used to obtain arid zones using multicriteria evaluation techniques, weighted linear combination, and Geographic Information Systems. In order to generate the prospective model for arid zones, the variables were modeled to adjust the rate of change for each of them, with the same methodology subsequently applied to obtain the base year (2020), and aridity suitability maps were obtained for the years 2030 and 2050. The main results indicate that the prospective scenarios point to an increase in arid regions of 0.38% and 0.70%, respectively, which is equivalent to an area of approximately 240,164.63 km2 and 241,760.75 km2, respectively. This will cause a decrease in the subhumid–dry and humid regions of 0.10% and 0.19%, respectively, for the projected years. Statistical and geospatial aridity indicators were also generated at different levels, which helps to better understand the problem of aridity in vulnerable regions.