Spatial and Temporal Variation in Primary Forest Growth in the Northern Daxing’an Mountains Based on Tree-Ring and NDVI Data

Abstract

We used tree-ring width data of Larix gmelinii and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica from the northern region of the Daxing’an Mountains, China; normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data; and microtopographic information (elevation, slope direction, slope gradient, and topographic location index) to assess spatiotemporal dynamics in the growth of the boreal forest and topographic patterns of forest decline under the background of climate warming. Forest growth trends were determined based on tree growth decline indicators and NDVI time series trends, and topographic patterns of forest decline were analyzed using the C5.0 decision tree model. More climatic information was present in the radial growth of the trees at higher elevations, and P. sylvestris var. mongolica was influenced strongly by climatic factors of the previous year. Since 1759, tree radial growth trends in the study area have experienced two recessions during 1878–1893 and 1935–1943, which were characterized by persistent narrow whorls of tree rings of below-average growth. Changes in NDVI and tree-ring information were similar, and they together indicate a high risk of declining forest growth in the northern Daxing’an Mountains after 2010, especially at higher elevations. The NDVI time series showed that the high temperatures in 2003 negatively affected forest growth in the study area, which was confirmed by the tree-ring data. The decision tree terrain model results had an accuracy of 0.861, and elevation was the most important terrain factor affecting forest decline. The relative importance of elevation, topographic position index, aspect, and slope was 58.41%, 17.70%, 16.81%, and 7.08%, respectively. Classification rule-based decision tree models can be used to quantify the effects of terrain factors on tree growth. This research methodology can aid the management of regional forestry resources and the conservation of forest resources under the background of climate change, which increases the risk of forest decline.