Impact of “Non-Grain” in Cultivated Land on Agricultural Development Resilience: A Case Study from the Major Grain-Producing Area of Northeast China

Abstract

Previous studies focused on the status and driving factors of non-grain cultivated land (NGCL), but lacked research on the impact mechanism of NGCL on sustainable agricultural development from the perspective of farmers’ household livelihoods and agricultural production factor allocation. Therefore, the concept of resilience was introduced. According to official statistics of China from 2010 to 2021, such as the local statistical yearbooks, the impact of NGCL on agricultural development resilience (ADR) in the main grain-producing area of Northeast China was explored based on the threshold effect model and the spatial lag model. The results indicate that: (1) the overall level of NGCI in the study area from 2011 to 2020 show an upward followed by a downward trend; (2) the size of agricultural labor force and average area per labor constrain the impact of NGCI on ADR, and the change can be characterized by negative to positive, increasing and then decreasing respectively, and the former is more constrained than the latter; (3) a negative effect of the NGCI trend on ADR exists without spatial spillover effect. The expansion of food production exacerbates the risk of factor mismatch, which is accentuated by the governance environment that pursues food production excessively. Establishing the NFP governance standards should consider the transformation of farmers’ livelihoods and the optimization of production factor allocation. Constructing a resilient risk management mechanism, promoting moderate scale operation and optimizing agricultural labor scale are specific paths for improving the governance mechanisms of NGCI. This study provides a theoretical reference for the development of policies and governance strategies for NGCI in underdeveloped areas.