Characteristics of Rainstorm Intensity and Its Future Risk Estimation in the Upstream of Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Under the background of climate warming, the occurrence of extreme events upstream of the Yellow River Basin has increased significantly. Extreme precipitation tends to be even more intense, and occurs more frequently. The impacts of various extreme weather and climate events in the basin have become increasingly complex, which is increasingly difficult to cope with and affects the basin’s long-term stability and ecological security. Based on the daily precipitation data of 33 meteorological stations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2021, this paper analyzes the characteristics of rainstorm intensity. Moreover, combined with the simulation results of 10 global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the social and economic prediction data from SSPs, it analyzes the possible changes of rainstorm disaster risk in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin in the 21st century, under the three emission scenarios of SSP126, SSP245, and SSP370. The results show that the precipitation in the upstream area of the Yellow River Basin is increasing at a rate of 8.1 mm per 10 years, and the number of rainstorm processes and their indicators is increasing, which indicates an increase in the extremeness of precipitation; the rainstorm process intensity index shows an increasing trend, especially in the northeast region with a concentrated population and economy, where the rainstorm process intensity index is high; it is estimated that the number of rainstorm days in low-, medium-, and high-risk scenarios will increase, which leads to an increase in the social risk by at least 60% by around 2050 (2036–2065); with the increasing disaster risk, the population exposure to rainstorm disasters is also on the rise. If no measures are taken, the population exposure will increase to 7.316 million people per day by around 2050, increasing by more than double, especially in the northeast. This study shows that, with the increasing rainstorm disaster risk and population exposure in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin, relevant measures need to be taken to ensure the safety of people’s lives and property.