Each 0.5°C of Warming Increases Annual Flood Losses in China by More than US$60 Billion

Abstract

AbstractIn the warming climate, flood risk is likely to increase over much of the globe. We present projections of changes of flood losses in China for a range of global warming scenarios, from 1.5° to 4.0°C above the preindustrial temperature, with a 0.5°C step. Projections of flood losses in China are based on river runoff simulations by a distributed hydrological model driven by multiple downscaled general circulation models, the national GDP projected at shared socioeconomic pathways, and the “intensity–loss rate” function. When interpreting changes caused by the combined effect of economic and climatic conditions, flood losses in China are projected to soar in the future, particularly in lowland regions subject to rapid economic growth. Under global warming of 1.5° and 4.0°C, in an average year, flood losses are projected to be, respectively, 4 and 17 times that at present. Pursuing the international climate policy target of limiting global warming is projected to reduce exposure to floods in China. In this way, flood losses in China can be reduced by tens of billions of U.S. dollars (on average, US$67 billion and up to 0.04% of GDP) for each 0.5°C that warming is reduced. Our study improves understanding of the impact of climatic and nonclimatic changes on flood risk. Our scientific contribution is the first study to quantify flood impacts across China under different development pathways (shared socioeconomic pathways) for a broad range of global warming levels.