Dynamic Scenario Simulations of Sustainable Rural and Towns Development in China: The Case of Wujiang District

Abstract

Increasing urbanization in China threatens the sustainable rural development of villages and towns. The siphoning effect of cities on the surrounding rural areas is increasing, resulting in the more severe problem of a “rural disease” and a widening gap between urban and rural areas. Implementing China’s rural revitalization strategies for urban–rural integration to alleviate these problems is crucial for sustainable rural development. Based on field research materials from Wujiang District, Suzhou City, China, this paper uses an explanatory structural model to screen the factors influencing sustainable rural development. A system dynamics model is used to identify the sustainable rural development trends of Chinese villages and towns under different scenarios. The results demonstrate that under the sustainable development model, consolidating the development of primary industries and increasing tertiary section investments can promote the development of the local economy. These are also conducive to environmental protection, and they improve the quality of the local living environment. The results can be used to formulate rural revitalization policies and promote urban–rural integration.