Combination of Hemoglobin-for-Age Z-Score and Plasma Hepcidin Identified as a Novel Predictor for Kawasaki Disease

Abstract

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a febrile coronary vasculitis that affects younger children and includes complications such as coronary artery aneurysm. KD diagnoses are diagnosed based on clinical presentations, a process that still poses a challenge for front-line physicians. In the current study, we developed a novel predictor using the hemoglobin-for-age z-score (HbZ) and plasma hepcidin to differentiate Kawasaki disease (KD) from febrile children (FC). There were 104 FC and 115 KD subjects (89 typical KD; 26 incomplete KD) for this study, and data were collected on the biological parameters of hemoglobin and plasma hepcidin levels. A receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC), multiple logistics regression, and support vector machine analysis were all adopted to develop our prediction condition. We obtained both predictors, HbZ and plasma hepcidin, for distinguishing KD and FC. The auROC of the multivariate logistic regression of both parameters for FC and KD was 0.959 (95% confidence interval = 0.937–0.981), and the sensitivity and specificity were 85.2% and 95.9%, respectively. Furthermore, the auROC for FC and incomplete KD was 0.981, and the sensitivity and specificity were 92.3% and 95.2%, respectively. We further developed a model of support vector machine (SVM) classification with 83.3% sensitivity and 88.0% specificity in the training set, and the blind cohort performed well (78.4% sensitivity and 100% specificity). All data showed that sensitivity and specificity were 81.7% and 91.3%, respectively, by SVM. Overall, our findings demonstrate a novel predictor using a combination of HbZ and plasma hepcidin with a better discriminatory ability for differentiating from WBC and CRP between children with KD and other FC. Using this predictor can assist front-line physicians to recognize and then provide early treatment for KD.