Analysis of the 20-Year Variability of Ocean Wave Hazards in the Northwest Pacific

Abstract

In the Northwest Pacific (NWP), where a unique monsoon climate exists and where both typhoons and extratropical storms occur frequently, hazardous waves pose a significant risk to maritime safety. To analyze the 20-year variability of hazardous waves in this region, this study utilized hourly reanalysis data from the ECMWF ERA5 dataset covering the period from 2001–2020, alongside the wave risk assessment method. The ERA5 data exhibits better consistency, in both the temporal and spatial dimensions, than satellite data. Although hazardous wind seas occur more frequently than hazardous swells, swells make hazardous waves travel further. Notably, the extreme wave height (EWH) shows an increasing trend in high- and low-latitude areas of the NWP. The change in meridional wind speeds is the primary reason for the change in the total wind speed in the NWP. Notably, the maximum annual increase rate of 0.013 m/year for EWH exists in the region of the Japanese Archipelago. This study elucidated the distributions of wave height intensity and wave risk levels, noting that the EWHs of the 50-year and 100-year return periods can reach 20.92 m and 23.07 m, respectively.