Changes in Net Primary Productivity and Factor Detection in China’s Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2019

Abstract

Net primary productivity (NPP) is a main contributor to ecosystem carbon pools. It is crucial to monitor the spatial and temporal dynamics of NPP, as well as to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities to cope with global change. The dynamic of the NPP in China’s Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2000 to 2019 and its influencing factors were analyzed by using trend and persistence tests and the GeoDetector method. The results show that the NPP had strong spatial heterogeneity, with a low NPP in the west and north, and a high NPP in the east and south. From 2000 to 2019, the NPP showed a statistically significant increase (at a mean of 5.5 g C m−2 yr−1, for a cumulative increase of 94.5 Tg C). A Hurst analysis showed that for the NPP in 76.3% of the YRB, the time series was anti-persistent. The spatial heterogeneity of the NPP in the YRB was mainly explained by precipitation and relative humidity (q value ranged from 0.24 to 0.44). However, the strength of the precipitation explained the decreased variation over time (q value decreased from 0.40 in 2000 to 0.26 in 2019). Interactions between the climate factors and human activities affected the NPP more strongly than individual factors. The results emphasize the importance of strengthening future research on the interaction between climate change and human activities. The results reveal the risk and optimal ranges of the driving factors and provide a quantification of the impacts of those factors regarding NPP. These findings can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration in the YRB.