A Threshold Logistic Modelling Approach for Identifying Thresholds between Antibiotic Use and Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Incidence Rates in Hospitals

Abstract

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of threshold logistic modelling, an innovative approach in identifying thresholds and risk scores in the context of population antibiotic use associated with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) incidence rates in hospitals. The study also aimed to assess the impact of exceeding those thresholds that resulted in increased MRSA rates. The study was undertaken in a 700-bed hospital in England between January 2015 and December 2021 (84 monthly observations). By employing the threshold logistic modelling approach, we: (i) determined the cut-off percentile value of MRSA incidence that defines a critical level of MRSA; (ii) identified thresholds for fluoroquinolone and co-amoxiclav use that would accelerate MRSA incidence rates and increase the probability of reaching critical incidence levels; (iii) enabled a better understanding of the effect of antibiotic use on the probability of reaching a critical level of resistant pathogen incidence; (iv) developed a near real-time performance monitoring feedback system; (v) provided risk scores and alert signals for antibiotic use, with the ability to inform hospital policies, and control MRSA incidence; and (vi) provided recommendations and an example for the management of pathogen incidence in hospitals. Threshold logistic models can help hospitals determine quantitative targets for antibiotic usage and can also inform effective antimicrobial stewardship to control resistance in hospitals. Studies should work toward implementing and evaluating the proposed approach prospectively, with the aim of determining the best counter-measures to mitigate the risk of increased resistant pathogen incidence in hospitals.